The truth is, I've been just a tiny bit scared ever since. Kind of given to staying in bed with a pillow over my head & moaning "all is lost....., woe is us....."
The Harper grin didn't charm me, but then I really don't find him personable at all, so it's no surprise. However, it appears to have had some effect on the Canadian populace and that's scaring me.
Because while people are letting themselves be charmed by Harper, they are apparently forgetting about all the insane people who populate this right-wing mongrel party. For every reasoned and reasonable fiscally responsible old PC Tory (& hey, I liked a lot of those!), you get a couple Rondo Thomases.
Oh it was funny to read Rick Mercer's cabinet projections. And Rondo Thomas for Minister in Charge of Holy Wars is fab.
But it's only funny if you think it can't possibly happen.
And then, all of a sudden, CBC AM is running a show with 3 people speculating on whom Harper would pick. Then the CBC website waded in.
OK, people. This is no longer funny. Those polls are starting to look very frightening.
Just because they have done a brilliant job in muzzling their social conservative yahoos, doesn't mean that they're not still there.
The CBC has done an excellent analysis of how the Conservatives have revamped themselves from 18 months ago. They titled this article Can a Party Change? The answer is NO, a party cannot change. But they can learn from their mistakes. They know very well that Canadians were scared off by their socially conservative, fundamentalist leanings. They addressed that not by getting rid of those elements in the party, but by putting a lid on them for the duration of the election.
They don't need to appear on the campaign trail to remind Harper about their issues, given that such a strategy appeared to have hurt the party's performance last time.
They didn't have to, though; on the first day of the campaign, Harper told reporters he intended to hold a free vote on same-sex marriage in the House of Commons.
After that promise was not included in Harper's list of top five priorities in early January, social conservatives were unfazed.
"They have to talk this way to get elected," said Link Byfield, chairman of the Citizens Centre for Freedom and Democracy. "I think a lot of conservatives honestly agree with that."
Aha. So they're going to do whatever it takes to get elected, and THEN start talking about same- sex marriage, the army, and the bible. I got it.
Do the people of Canada get it? I hope so.
Meanwhile, the kind of things I'm looking at (when I'm not in bed with the pillow over my head) is translating poll results to seat projections. It's the kind of thing political scientists love, love, love!
Have a look at the Election Prediction Project and at Democratic Space.
1 comment:
Just as in the USA, we have seen in the past three weeks the mainstream media skimming the surface rather than digging into details. They focus on He said-She said reporting, and banal interviews, instead of presenting the nitty gritty of a campaign. A true investigative reporter would be dogging the internal pollsters of each major party, rather than just quaffing wine together on some bus off in the wilds somewhere. Most of the columnists on the buses are now suffering from the same Stockholm-fever that the journalists embedded with the US troops showed in the invasion of Iraq.
What has happened? Few details of the shifts in voter currents have surfaced. Allan Gregg is busy drumming up support for his pet Tories; the others show out of date polls. But – like the rising tide – the truth is seeping in: the closer we get to decision day, the more people are looking at a preening Harper and not liking what they see. His dismissive wave of the hand to the $20 billion gap in his program, and to the tax cuts for the wealthier citizens, along with his hanging a for-sale sign out in the provinces (hurry! Hurry! Federal government powers for sale – cheap!), are starting to seep into voters’ minds.
Is it a surprise that the polls are closing and will continue to close? No. Voters are kicking the tires, and Harper’s tires are flatter than his “evolution” pretended them to be.
Voters can spot a fraud a mile away, and Harper’s so-called “I am a changed man” defence of his 1997 speech to rightwingers in the USA just does not wash.
There is still a chance for a Liberal minority government. You heard it right here, from the Cat.
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